美國與世界：加薩戰爭的結局
（柯翰默Charles Krauthammer-作者為美國《華盛頓郵報》專欄作家）
2009.1.13 刊載於蘋果日報 (Chinese on Apple Daily)
http://1-apple.com.tw/index.cfm?Fuseaction=Article&Art_ID=31313053&IssueID=20090113
雖然以色列領導人刻意模糊加薩戰爭的最終目標，但這場戰爭只有兩種可能的結局：（A）類似以黎戰爭的結果，雙方在國際觀察家監督下終止敵對狀態，或者（B）瓦解哈瑪斯在加薩的政權。
國際社會運作停火
在龐大的國際壓力之下，歐默特政府已開始暗示，可接受法國與埃及提出的停火計劃，亦即默許了結局A。這將是個可怕的錯誤。
停火計劃將會失敗，因為其要素會與黎巴嫩的偽和平相同：一支國際維和部隊進駐，卻連有意義地使用武力都一概避免；一項武器禁運令，卻肯定會讓武器大批湧入；而敵對狀態的終止，則會持續至恐怖份子一方重整軍備，準備好開啟下一輪的敵對狀態為止。
「國際社會」現正強力運作，要讓這樁比手劃腳猜字謎遊戲在加薩重演。有人能想像國際觀察員會冒生命危險去攔阻武器走私嗎？或是去逮捕恐怖份子？抑或是與發射火箭砲攻擊加薩邊界另一端以色列平民的武裝團體交火？
因此，對於以色列及文明世界而言，這場戰爭唯一可被接受的結果，是結局（B）：瓦解哈瑪斯政權。這件事已經在進行當中。
並不是要殺掉所有哈瑪斯武裝份子。不可能，也不需要。一個政權不是靠制伏領土上每個人民來實行統治，而是讓大多數人接受其統治權。這就是哈瑪斯政權背後的支持力量，也是目前受到強烈攻擊的部分。
哈瑪斯的領導階層不僅丟盡顏面，還遭到公然羞辱。這群敦促別人殉教的偉大戰士，自己畏畏縮縮躲在地下，近乎關禁閉。明顯無法保護人民的他們，向外乞求援助，得到的回應除了阿拉伯及伊朗等兄弟之邦的承諾以外，別無其他。實際上，是誰提供人道走廊，讓針對巴勒斯坦百姓的人道援助得以進入加薩？是以色列。
留下百姓自生自滅
這場戰爭開打後4分鐘，以色列空軍就已摧毀50個目標，擊垮哈瑪斯政權幾乎所有的工具與象徵。加薩主政者有如波坦金戰艦領導人被邊緣化，束手無策，留下百姓自生自滅。此時此刻，政權已難以避免要喪失中國人所謂的天命，也就是所有型態統治權背後的合法支持力量。
哈瑪斯在加薩政權的垮台已近在眼前，但唯有以色列不屈服於停火壓力才可能實現。推翻哈瑪斯並不需要以色列永久重新佔領加薩。過渡時期國際維和部隊將會進駐，立即為巴勒斯坦自治政府重返加薩開路。巴勒斯坦自治政府是具備正當性的合法政府，其軍隊在加薩建立秩序，遠比過分謹慎的歐盟維和部隊適合。
(來源:全國禱告網絡)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/08/AR2009010802993_pf.html
Endgame in Gaza
By Charles Krauthammer
Friday, January 9, 2009; A17
Israel's leaders have purposely obscured their war aims in Gaza . But there are only two possible endgames: (A) a Lebanon-like cessation of hostilities to be supervised by international observers, or (B) the disintegration of Hamas rule in Gaza .
Under tremendous international pressure -- including from an increasingly wobbly U.S. State Department -- the government of Ehud Olmert has begun hinting that it is receptive to a French-Egyptian cease-fire plan, essentially acquiescing to Endgame A.
That would be a terrible mistake.
It would fail on its own terms. It would have the same elements as the phony peace in Lebanon : an international force that abjures any meaningful use of force, an arms embargo under which arms will most assuredly flood in, and a cessation of hostilities until the terrorist side is rearmed and ready to initiate the next round of hostilities.
The U.N.-mandated disarmament of Hezbollah in Lebanon is a well-known farce. Not only have foreign forces not stopped Hezbollah's massive rearmament, their very presence makes it impossible for Israel to take any preventive military action, lest it accidentally hit a blue-helmeted Belgian crossing guard.
The "international community" is now pushing very hard for a Gaza replay of that charade. Does anyone imagine that international monitors will risk their lives to prevent weapons smuggling? To arrest terrorists? To engage in shootouts with rocket-launching teams attacking Israeli civilians across the Gaza border?
Of course not. Weapons will continue to be smuggled. Deeper and more secure fortifications will be built for the next round. Mosques, schools and hospitals will again be used for weapons storage and terrorist safe havens. Do you think French "peacekeepers" are going to raid them?
Such a deal would buy Israel maybe a couple of years. After which, Round Two -- with Hamas rockets by then killing civilians in Tel Aviv, making Ben-Gurion airport unusable and reaching Israel 's nuclear reactor in Dimona.
Which is why the only acceptable outcome of this war, both for Israel and for the civilized world, is Endgame B: the disintegration of Hamas rule. It is already underway.
This is not about killing every last Hamas gunman. Not possible, not necessary. Regimes rule not by physically overpowering every person in their domain but by getting the majority to accept their authority. That is what sustains Hamas, and that is what is now under massive assault.
Hamas's leadership is not only seriously degraded but openly humiliated. The great warriors urging others to martyrdom are cowering underground, almost entirely incommunicado.
Demonstrably unable to protect their own people, they beg for outside help, receiving in return nothing but words from their Arab and Iranian brothers. And who in fact is providing the corridors for humanitarian assistance to Palestinian civilians? Israel .
In the first four minutes of this war, the Israeli Air Force destroyed 50 targets, taking down practically every instrument and symbol of Hamas rule. Gaza 's Potemkin leaders were marginalized and rendered helpless, leaving their people to fend for themselves. At such moments, regimes are extremely vulnerable to forfeiting what the Chinese call the mandate of heaven, the sense of legitimacy that undergirds all forms of governance.
The fall of Hamas rule in Gaza is within reach, but only if Israel does not cave in to pressure to stop now. Overthrowing Hamas would not require a permanent Israeli reoccupation. A transitional international force would be brought in to immediately make way for the return of the Palestinian Authority, the legitimate government whose forces would be far less squeamish than the Europeans in establishing order in Gaza .
The disintegration of Hamas rule in Gaza would be a devastating blow to Palestinian rejectionists, who since the Hamas takeover of Gaza have been the ascendant "strong horse" in Palestinian politics. It would be a devastating blow to Iran as patron of radical Islamist movements throughout the region, particularly after the defeat and marginalization of Iran 's Sadrist client in Iraq . It would encourage the moderate Arab states to continue their U.S.-allied confrontation of Iran and its proxies. And it would demonstrate Israel 's irreplaceable strategic value to the United States in curbing and containing Iran 's regional ambitions.
Olmert had such an opportunity in Lebanon . He blew it. He now has a rare second chance. The one-step-from-madness gangster theocracy in Gaza -- just four days before the fighting, the Hamas parliament passed a sharia criminal code, legalizing, among other niceties, crucifixion -- is teetering on the brink. It can be brought down, but only if Israel is prepared -- and allowed -- to complete the real mission of this war. For the Bush State Department, in its last significant act, to prevent that with the premature imposition of a cease-fire would be not just self-defeating but shameful. letters@charleskrauthammer.com